What if the next pandemic happens tomorrow?

What If the Next Pandemic Hits Tomorrow? Dr. Jay Varma Joins Experts in NYT’s “Disease X” Simulation

Published in: The New York Times
Date: March 12, 2023

As the world continues to recover from COVID-19, public health leaders are asking a critical question: Are we ready for the next pandemic?

In a groundbreaking interactive feature by The New York Times, leading experts—including Dr. Jay Varma—were asked to participate in a real-time simulation responding to a fictional but highly plausible viral outbreak, dubbed “Disease X.” The simulation mimics what decision-makers might face if a novel, more lethal respiratory virus began spreading in the U.S. with little warning and no available vaccine.

Dr. Jay Varma on Temporary School Closures

Dr. Varma, former senior COVID-19 advisor to Mayor Bill de Blasio and now Director of the Cornell Center for Pandemic Prevention and Response, advocates for a brief, clearly defined closure of in-person schools and childcare at the onset of a high-risk respiratory outbreak.

“During a brief closure… states should use the billions of unspent COVID-19 funds and recent COVID-19 systems and contracts to immediately improve indoor air ventilation and disinfection,” Dr. Varma writes.

His strategy balances the dual imperatives of protecting life and preserving educational continuity, calling for:

• N95/KN95 mask distribution for students and staff
• DIY air filtration projects
• On-site testing contracts with local health partners
• Rapid development of remote learning options

Importantly, he recommends a firm reopening deadline—no later than four weeks— paired with accommodations for students and staff at higher risk.

Why It Matters

Dr. Varma’s contribution reflects a pragmatic, harm-reduction approach to pandemic preparedness. Drawing from hard-won lessons during COVID-19, his guidance prioritizes both infection control and educational resilience, recognizing the deep and long-term consequences of prolonged school closures.

This perspective is part of a broader debate featured in the piece, which includes input from public health luminaries like Dr. Tom Frieden, Dr. Nicole Lurie, and Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo.

📖 Read the full simulation and expert responses in The New York Times:
👉 What If the Next Pandemic Happens Tomorrow?